Published on November 29, 2006

With Windows Vista's business launch less than two days away, there is no shortage of adoption forecasts. Another published this evening.

Endpoint Technologies forecasts that Microsoft and its PC partners will ship 82 million Windows Vista licenses during 2007. The market researcher expects that most businesses won't begin deployment until at least third quarter 2007. "Six quarters out is when most of these companies are going to be adopting Vista," the report concludes (Disclosure: Microsoft is an Endpoint client).

Windows Vista Home Premium will dominate the consumer market

The adoption forecast is in line with recent studies conducted by CDW and Gartner.

Endpoint's forecast is based on hardware, so licenses shipped by OEMs. The forecast does not account for licenses enterprises might deploy through volume licensing. According to Microsoft financial statements, about 80 percent of revenue comes from OEM license sales.

The report doesn't assess which Windows Vista versions will be most popular. PC manufacturers and Microsoft expect that Windows Vista Home Premium will dominate the consumer market. Business market is more uncertain, with a possible split among Windows Vista Business, Ultimate and Enterprise. The latter two are essentially identical, except that Enterprise is strictly sold through volume licensing.

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