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Next Year Global Economic Growth Will More Slower
- By Himfr Mary
- Published February 4, 2012
- Business Management
- Unrated
Himfr Mary
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United Nations Economic and Social Affairs on December 1 at United Nations Headquarters in New York issued the "2011 World Economic Situation and Prospects" in the Outlook section of the report.
The report predicts that world GDP growth from 3.6% in 2010 down to 3.1% in 2011, China's economic growth will also slow down, but will continue to lead the world by 8.9%.
Low growth, high unemployment is likely to be in the next few years many countries have to face reality. By the financial crisis triggered by the economic recession is not a simple cyclical fluctuations. Major structural problems faced by the developed countries, instead of relying on macroeconomic stimulus in the short term quick solution, otherwise the financial crisis is not terrible.
If the major developed countries, growth in 2011 than in 2010, slowing growth in developing countries will also decline. But as long as does not fall into the second recession in major developed countries, developing countries will not be much affected.
About macro-policy challenges, some analysts, including the UN report that G20 is not able to reach the summit in Seoul specific coordination measures, such as the development of national trade imbalance cap, or similar to the introduction of the 80s' Square agreement '. I personally think that these criticisms ignore the current world economic situation and the different two years ago, the narrow understanding of the significance of international policy coordination.
Pace of recovery in the face of different international policy coordination is clearly no longer as stressed as two years ago, countries in terms of policy objectives and unity of effort, but to the specific circumstances of countries according to their economic policy under the premise of minimizing national policies may have negative international 'spillover' effect. The most
basic goal is to prevent the current 'competitive devaluation' policy and international trade protectionism. In the existing world economic governance under the framework of the significance of international macroeconomic policy coordination is through active dialogue and equal consultation to avoid and reduce the country's major contradictions between the economic policies, rather than the deliberate pursuit of a similar 'Plaza Accord' of quantitative measures .
On international trade imbalance, it should be from the perspective of the development and practical analysis. Indeed, among the major countries of the world trade imbalance still exists, it should be through the imbalance of international policy coordination to prevent the expansion. However, the current imbalance in the scale of only a half before the outbreak of the financial crisis, from the current trend, in the next two or three years the world will not form a great threat to economic stability. Moreover, some of the major deficit and surplus countries are in favor of the economic structure of the direction of balance adjustments. As deficit countries like the United States, its household savings on the rise, and China, as a policy of surplus countries are increasing efforts to stimulate consumer spending. But these adjustments take time. Hasty adjustments to trade imbalances, is not conducive to world economic recovery.
International policy coordination is very important, especially in the global economy is facing a financial crisis when the common threat, but after the crisis, the economic recovery depends largely on the domestic policies and domestic economic structure, rather than international policy coordination. States can avoid the expense of others as long as the policy is the greatest success of international policy coordination. The pursuit of a 'global central planned economy' model of international policy coordination programs to address the financial crisis, countries in the period after facing many complex issues of a different nature is unrealistic.
The report predicts that world GDP growth from 3.6% in 2010 down to 3.1% in 2011, China's economic growth will also slow down, but will continue to lead the world by 8.9%.
Low growth, high unemployment is likely to be in the next few years many countries have to face reality. By the financial crisis triggered by the economic recession is not a simple cyclical fluctuations. Major structural problems faced by the developed countries, instead of relying on macroeconomic stimulus in the short term quick solution, otherwise the financial crisis is not terrible.
If the major developed countries, growth in 2011 than in 2010, slowing growth in developing countries will also decline. But as long as does not fall into the second recession in major developed countries, developing countries will not be much affected.
About macro-policy challenges, some analysts, including the UN report that G20 is not able to reach the summit in Seoul specific coordination measures, such as the development of national trade imbalance cap, or similar to the introduction of the 80s' Square agreement '. I personally think that these criticisms ignore the current world economic situation and the different two years ago, the narrow understanding of the significance of international policy coordination.
Pace of recovery in the face of different international policy coordination is clearly no longer as stressed as two years ago, countries in terms of policy objectives and unity of effort, but to the specific circumstances of countries according to their economic policy under the premise of minimizing national policies may have negative international 'spillover' effect. The most
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On international trade imbalance, it should be from the perspective of the development and practical analysis. Indeed, among the major countries of the world trade imbalance still exists, it should be through the imbalance of international policy coordination to prevent the expansion. However, the current imbalance in the scale of only a half before the outbreak of the financial crisis, from the current trend, in the next two or three years the world will not form a great threat to economic stability. Moreover, some of the major deficit and surplus countries are in favor of the economic structure of the direction of balance adjustments. As deficit countries like the United States, its household savings on the rise, and China, as a policy of surplus countries are increasing efforts to stimulate consumer spending. But these adjustments take time. Hasty adjustments to trade imbalances, is not conducive to world economic recovery.
International policy coordination is very important, especially in the global economy is facing a financial crisis when the common threat, but after the crisis, the economic recovery depends largely on the domestic policies and domestic economic structure, rather than international policy coordination. States can avoid the expense of others as long as the policy is the greatest success of international policy coordination. The pursuit of a 'global central planned economy' model of international policy coordination programs to address the financial crisis, countries in the period after facing many complex issues of a different nature is unrealistic.